Economics of protected cultivation of cut-rose for international markets: Role of price prediction models in integrating production with marketing*

Protected cultivation of rose as cut flower for export purpose has been promoted in India as an agri business venture in the last one decade. Suitable climate, plentiful sunlight and congenial weather provide Indian growers special advantage in terms of reduced initial establishment and production cost. The location advantage in terms closeness to international markets like Holland provide Indian growers a special opportunity to access the season between September and February. This study utilises Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for analysing the international price trends for variety First Red and forecasting for future. Further, the study demonstrates how rose producers can identify specific occasions for accessing international market, plan their rose harvests well in advance and arrive at the net realisations based on different months and modes of sale at international marketing centres.