Growth, instability and export performance of chillies during pre- and post-liberalization periods

Spcies are the major export commodities from India and the trade policies influence the spice trade. In recent years, there have been ups and downs in export of important spices but a steady increase in some spices like chillies. The present study has been carried out to (i) study the area, production, productivity and export of chillies, (ii) assess the share of export of chillies in production, (iii) measure the growth and instability in the export of chillies during pre- and post-liberalization periods, and (iv) project the export of chillies. The secondary data related to annual export quantity, value and unit value for the period 1976–77 to 2005–06 have been collected and used for growth and instability analysis. The export quantity of chillies for the period of 36 years (1970–71 to 2005–06) has been used for projecting the export, using ARIMA models. Chillies export has shown a higher growth rate during post-liberalization than pre-liberalization period in terms of both quantity and value of chillies. The estimated instability index for chillies has revealed the trade to be highly unstable during the pre-liberalization period, but has been moedratebly stable during post-liberalisation period. The study has revealed that export of chillies would increase during the next five years, reaching 1,39,160 tonnes by 2010–11. The study has suggested that necessary infrastructure may be created to export huge quantities of chillies.