Growth, Instability and Forecast of Marine Product Export from India

This paper has analysed the growth and instability in export of marine products in the recent past from India and has projected the total export of marine products from India. The export data on marine products were collected from India's comprehensive statistical database, Indiastat (2013) and country-wise time-series export data were collected for the past 12 years, from 2000 to 2011. The compound growth rates and instability indices of marine product export from India were estimated for five major importing countries, viz. Japan, USA, European Union, South-East Asia and Middle East. The study has revealed high compound growth rate and low instability for some countries. It has also revealed that India's marine product export was concentrated mainly to those countries that fall under in less desirable or least desirable category, which has affected the export performance of India in this sector. The forecast of India's marine product export, done by fitting univariate auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, has shown an increasing trend. This calls for the attention of policymakers in identifying competitive and stable market destinations for marine product export from India