1Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, Hyderabad-500 030, Telangana
2Department of Agricultural Economics, Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, Hyderabad-500 030, Telangana
Online published on 24 February, 2018.
The area, production, productivity trends and growth rates of sugarcane crop in India have been studied for a period of 40 years, from 1972–73 to 2011–12 based on linear and non-linear regression models. The statistically most suited regression models have been selected on the basis of Adjusted R2, significant regression coefficients and co-efficient of determination (R2). The appropriate model has been selected on the basis of various goodness of fit criteria, viz. residual mean squares, assumptions of normality and independence of residuals. To test the randomness of the residuals, ‘Run test’ has been carried out. The relative growths of area, production and productivity have been estimated based on the best fitted trend function. The projections of area, production and productivity of sugarcane crop in India by 2019–20, estimated upon the best fitted growth model, are 5.57 Mha, 382 Mt and 66 t/ha, respectively. Compound function has been found to be best fitted model for area and production, whereas for productivity of sugarcane, it is quadratic function. The growth per annum during the study period has been studied by compound growth rate. The production of sugarcane has increased at a rate of 2.49 per cent due to combined effect of increase in area and productivity at the rate of 1.61 per cent and 0.87 per cent per annum, respectively.
Sugarcane, growth rates, production, productivity, India
