Analysis of Area under Edible Oilseeds in India during Markov Chain

The paper has studied the dynamics of area under different oilseed crops in major oilseeds-growing states of India, viz. Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Rajasthan, by determing transition probability matrix (TPM) using first order Markov Chain model for the period 2002 to 2012. The study has revealed that two oilseed crops, castor and sunflower have a high retention capability and rapeseed and mustard have a relatively stable retention capability in all the states analysed. The low retention probability for few oilseeds may be due to tough competition presented and greater market diffusion efforts made by other oilseeds. The study has concluded that India should not have high reliance on one oilseed so as to evade trade risks in the long-run. Therefore, suitable policies have to be envisioned to diversify the geographical concentration of oilseed production and minimize market risks.