Export Performance of Indian Walnut: Decomposition Analysis and Gravity Model Approach^§

Export performance of Indian walnut has been comprehensively analyzed in this study employing chronological data. The export of walnut from India has significantly increased over the years, but still constituted only 3 per cent of total world export. Between 1979 and 2012, the export of shelled walnut has significantly increased, at an annual growth rate of about 3 per cent, while walnut with shell has shown a declining trend over the years, implying widening of markets for value-added products of walnut. The export instability in quantity and value of both shelled and walnut with shell has declined over the years; however, the instability in unit price of shelled walnut has increased over the years. The decomposition analysis has revealed highest contribution of change in mean export quantity among the other components of change in the average export value of walnut. The unit value of Indian walnut export has been found lower compared to many other nations, indicating the possibility of a higher price by ensuring quality parameters as per global standards. The estimates of gravity model have revealed that per capita GDP, agricultural GDP, and consumption of importing partners, and also the Indian GDP are the significant factors determining Indian walnut export. The study has also unveiled unexploited potential of Indian walnut export to some trading partners. The study has emphasized on the improvement in quality of walnut, integration of production and value addition, export promotion and strengthening of bilateral ties with regular trade partners for enhancing export of Indian walnut.