Analysis of instability and growth of pulse production in India

Pulses are considered as one of the smart foods as they provide smart solutions to meet the global challenges of hunger, nutritional security and sustainable agriculture. The declining trend in per capita availability of pulses (from 60 grams in 1951 to 47 grams in 2014), has become a serious issue concerning the sustainable nutritional security. In this context, this study analyses the instability and growth of pulses in India from 1984–2016. To assess the instability, Cuddy Della Valle Index (CDVI) and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) were used to calculate the growth rates. A Growth instability matrix was constructed to study the interrelationship between two indicators. Though not included during the adoption of green revolution technology, after mid 1980s the government has been offering various policy supports to enhance pulse production in the country. The study shows that in most of the states the growth in production has been the highest during 2000–01 to 2007–08 when Macro Management of Agriculture Scheme and ISOPOM were in operation. On the other hand, instability tended to be lower between 2007–08 to 2015–16 when Accelerated Pulse Production Programme under NFSM was operational. In comparison to overall pulses and chickpea, red gram has remained highly unstable throughout all four assumed phases from 1983–84 to 2015–16 across major states. Cross section regression of instability on growth rates of major states shows that instability trend declines with growth in long term but not in medium term. Decomposition of changes in gross revenue reveals that between 2000–01 and 2007–08 and 2008–09 and 2015–16, the change in price variance has dominantly contributed in case of chick pea and red gram in major producing states.