This study assesses the export scenario of Indian groundnuts. The growth rate of groundnuts for the time series data from 1987–88 to 2017–18 was 15.31%, and the growth rate in value earned from exports was 23.9%. We used Markov chain (MC) analysis to understand the dynamics of export. Indonesia was the most stable importer, with 48.60% retention, and the Netherlands shows a low probability retention of 10.00%. In a changing economic scenario, government policy should aim at increasing productivity, reducing cost per unit of production and improving trade standards to enhance groundnut exports.