Supply, demand and exportable surplus of rice: Present vis-à-vis thirty years ahead

This study projects the future demand and supply of one of the most important food grains of Indian food security basket, i.e., rice for the year 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on historical data on area, production and yield (APY); NSSO data on per capita consumption of rice and population forecasts of the United Nations (UN) for India. Further, the study classifies different rice producing states based on productivity into high, medium and low yielding states which are vital for initiating policy actions for strengthening the rice production from the ecologically favourable but low yielding regions. State wise APY data for the year 2018-19 indicates the typical concentration of rice cultivation in the eastern and southern Indian states. Also, the eastern states, though accounts for the greater area and production but with the lowest yield, while higher productivity of north and south zones can be attributed to better irrigation facilities. During 1950-51 to 2018-19, rice production witnesses an average growth of 2.45 per cent per year. Projected estimates indicates that Indian rice production may attain about 160 million tonnes by the year 2030 to 259 million tonnes during 2050. Further, the supply- demand differences for future indicates that, India would retain surplus of about 62 million tonnes of rice by the year 2050 after meeting the consumption demand for about 1.65 billion future population. Further, on the policy issue on dipping rice area in the country, it was also assessed that had the rice area remains the same as in 2018-19, yield level need to be increased by about 1.83 t ha⁻¹ and if rice area decreases by 15 per cent, incremental yield to fed the burgeoning population would be around 2.62 t ha⁻¹ during the year 2050.