Growth rate and instability of groundnut production in Odisha: A statistical modelling approach

The oilseeds play a major role in increasing farmers’ incomes mainly due to their greater economic value. In Odisha, groundnut, mustard, sunflower, sesame and castor are important oilseed crops. Groundnut shares 34% of the total area and 64% of the total production of oilseeds. This study explores the best fit model for area, yield and production of groundnut in Odisha to estimate the growth rate for the period 1970–71 to 2019–20 and further divided into pre-liberalisation (1970–71 to 1995–96) and post-liberalisation (1996–97 to 2019–20) periods. The models considered in the analysis are linear, logarithmic model, quadratic, compound and power model. Durbin-Watson test, Shapiro-Wilk's test and park's test have been used for testing error assumptions. Based on the significance of parametric coefficient, residual diagnostics and the model fit statistics, the best fit model has been selected for estimation of the growth rate. The growth in area and production of groundnut has decelerated in the post-liberalisation period, while yield growth has accelerated.