Wheat production in India: Adaptability to climate change and prospects

Wheat is the major food crop produced and consumed in India. Wheat is mostly cultivated in northern plains. Over the years, climate change has, however, adversely affected the productivity of wheat. Considering these, an attempt has been made to assess the impact of climate change on wheat and to find a relationship between factors responsible for climate change and wheat production in India. Forecasting for 10 years has been made based on data of 25 years (1994–2018) employing the Box-Jenkin ARIMA model of the total production and total consumption of wheat. The ARIMA model of production selected for this study is of the order (1,1,0) and for consumption, it is of the order (0,1,2). The findings will help in suggesting whether India will be self-sufficient in total wheat production against the consistently increasing demand for wheat.