Agricultural sector amidst rising food insecurity: Quantifying the impact of market access barriers

Global conflicts are leading to worsening of food insecurity. Additionally, the trade policies adopted by the developed world by way of application of non-tariff measures (NTMs) are further contributing to the already worsened food security scenario. This paper quantifies the impact of Non-Tariff Measures on the agricultural exports of the low-middle income countries at HS- 4-digit level. While the existing literature has mostly focused on bilateral trade analyses, this paper encompasses a multilateral trade model involving multiple exporters, importers, and agricultural products. The model employs a gravity model framework which is estimated using a Feasible Generalized Least Square estimator. The results reveal that, the impact of SPS and TBT are significant. A single SPS notification corresponds to a 0.3% decrease in exports, while an additional TBT notification increases the trade between countries by 2.7%. The paper brings forth the reasons for the differential impact on the exporters of an SPS measure in comparison to a TBT measure and suggests measures to improve the state of global food security.