Forecasting yield of coarse cereals in India using ARIMA model

Forecasting crop yield (production per unit area) is an essential procedure in supporting policy decision regarding land use allocation, food security and environmental issues. In current paper the data on yield of coarse cereals in India for the period 1950–51 to 2011–12 have been analyzed by time series method. For modeling the class of Box-Jenkins auto regressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) model has been considered. Appropriate ARIMA (p, d, q) model was fitted and validity of this model was tested by using standard statistical techniques.