Application of indicators for identifying climate vulnerable areas in sub-tropical regions of India

This paper aims to assess agro-climatic zone wise vulnerability in the state of Uttar Pradesh, India which has complex geographical conditions and highly susceptible to climate variability. By using indicator approach and decomposition method, the crop production losses due to climate variability of 20 crops were calculated for nine agro climate zones. Further, exposure to climatic factors namely rainfall and temperatures in Kharif and rabi seasons was captured. Furthermore, using socio-economic data, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices were calculated. Moreover, vulnerability index was calculated using IPCC-vulnerability methodology. The calculated results show that climatic variability caused higher production losses in cereals, pulses and oilseeds in southwest semi-arid zone (13.2 thousand tonnes), Bundelkhand zone (2.26 thousand tonnes) and northeast plain zone (0.14 thousand tonnes), respectively. Further, the calculated results show that Midwest plain and bhabhartrai zones were placed under the extreme degree of exposure, whereas Midwest plain and Bundelkhand zones are most sensitive to climate variability. As per adaptive capacity index scores, west plain and east plain zones are ranked first and second in term of adaptive capacity in the state. Overall, vulnerability index scores indicate that Bundelkhand and vidhyan zones are extremely vulnerable agro climatic zones in the Uttar Pradesh. The present study suggest that the ranking based prioritization of the vulnerable areas calls for a holistic approach for each district or agro climatic zones to reduce their sensitivity, minimize exposure to rainfall and temperatures through implementation of area specific and leverage, adaptive capacity through better health and education facilities, expansion of employment opportunities in the non-farm sector to reduce over dependence on agriculture.