Fuzzy Real Option Analysis Method for Evaluating Capital Investment Plans and Determine the Optimal Time to Invest

In each project the value of project or in other words the value that created by project is important for investors. However, due to being unknown part of the factors affecting the value of a project in a world full of uncertainty, it is almost impossible to calculate amounts, However, this is an issue that's important to us to what extent we have been able to identify various factors that influence the value of the project And more importantly, the extent to which we have been able to effect the Numbers Varqam explanation. The main shortcomings of traditional approach, on the one hand not involved in the valuation of managerial flexibility to projects and the other, they rely on classical logic (two-valued). Therefore, any methods are not consistent with for human Approximation oriented mentality. In the present Research for the evaluation of investment projects and increase the accuracy and efficiency of capital budgeting decisions, fuzzy Real Option analysis method is presented. The advantage of this method, is considering the administrative authority lies in investment projects and the use of fuzzy numbers. In this research, investment project on a product that is obtained as a patent, According to estimates made by experts and has been done as trapezoid fuzzy numbers, are valued using Carlson and Fuller's model. Bnaruch and Kaufman's method also used to determine the optimal time of investment. Then Real options available in the project have been identified and its value is estimated.