Sensitivity Analysis of Investment in the Production of Greenhouse Vegetables in Neyshabur, Iran

If we want to produce out of season, we should use the methods to controlling plant growth environment (temperature. Relative humidity, and light). For this purpose we use the greenhouse. Considering that the financial justification of projects is usually done in a state of uncertainty and do not trust any future economic conditions, terefore sensitivity analysis is a very useful process to evaluate investment risk to have a better understanding of the effects of changes in income, expenses, performance, sale prices and interest rates over time. Sensitivity analysis was conducted the effect of increasing or decreasing this factors on production of greenhouse vegetables (cucumbers and tomatoes) in Neyshabur in 2011–2012 cropping year. We examine their effects on the economic feasibility by using benefit-cost (B/C), internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) methods. Sensitivity analysis results for one period of cucumbers showed with declining revenues more than 32 percent of current income and rising costs as much as 70% of the total variable costs current and in the interest rate higher of 35 percent, greenhouse production design of this product is not economically feasible. Sensitivity analyzes results for two periods cucumbers showed with declining revenues more than 25 percent of current income and rising costs as much as 45% of the total variable costs current and in the interest rate higher of 40 percent, greenhouse production design of this product is not economically feasible. Sensitivity analyzes results for tomatoes showed in incomes less than 40 percent of the current income and in the cost More than 100 percent of variable costs current and in the interest rate of 50% and above, greenhouse production design of this product loses its economic feasibility.