Asian Journal of Research in Social Sciences and Humanities

  • Year: 2015
  • Volume: 5
  • Issue: 11

Credit Default Modelling in Indian Banks-Analysis using Altman Z Score

1Professor, International Management Institute (IMI), Qutab Institutional Area, New Delhi, India

2Student, International Management Institute (IMI), New Delhi, India

3Student, International Management Institute (IMI), New Delhi, India

Abstract

The growth of an economy is based on the foundation of a strong and robust financial sector. For an emerging country like India, the strength of financial institutions (majorly banks) is must and even small fluctuations could lead to major repercussions not only in India but also in the global economy. This study tries to examine the strength of credit portfolios by the major banks of India by the means of Altman Z core model of bankruptcy over the period of 2006–2015. The study tries to observe the Z score for predicting possible bankruptcy across 10 banks including 5 public and 5 private sector banks. The authors have concluded that most of the banks scoring decent Z score are far off from the level of bankruptcy and fall off in non-default group. Also most of the banks have shown a marginal appreciation in Z value. The findings substantiate that the score of both public and private banks are comparable with public sector having an edge over private sector banks.

Keywords

Probability of Default, Credit monitoring arrangements, Nonperforming assets, Bankruptcy