Analyzing Sales Trend and Forecasting Demand - A Quantitaive Research on Asian Paints Applying Time Series Modeling

The progression of the paint industry over the last decade has witnessed enormous growth rate with frequent alteration in the wide-ranging product portfolio synergy that the industry has to offer. Segmented into unorganized and the organized sector, the foremost players in the organized sector today include Asian paints, Berger paints, Kansai Nerolac paints, Nippon paints etc. The market is largely untapped in India; with a huge section of the population is yet to be unexplored and hence lays the chance of gaining more market share. Probability to get into new markets specifically the rural markets is a stiff challenge in front of the industry. The booming Indian housing sector, valiant industrial growth, heavy infrastructural spending and increase in the income level of the household are the salient factors behind the success growth story.

The aim of this research is to understand the sector sales trend of Asian Paints, identifying the seasonality effect on sales, deseasonalizing it and thereby evaluation of the cyclical and random factors associated to estimate the actual trend. The objective is to develop a model to evaluate the forecasted sales for future years. Methodology applied is time series modeling, applying least square method under multiplicative model. Evaluations of the forecasted sales figure for 2011 to 2015 are its major findings.