“Business Forecasting Techniques - A Supply Chain Issue” -A Quantitative Research on Estimated Trend a Case on Pantaloons Lifestyle & Value Retailing

Indian Retail Industry is at an inflexion point which is the next boom industry. The Sector is large in size but unorganized. Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd is India's leading retailer that operates in both the value and lifestyle segment of consumer market. Today it is the leading manufacturer-retailer, focuses to meet the customer requirements in fashion, food, general merchandise and home in value and lifestyle segments.

The research is based on quantitative analysis focusing on last 5 years quarterly sales were monitored to estimate the effect of Trend, Cyclical, Seasonal and Random Components. Attempt made to deseasonalized the actual trend with the help of seasonal index and adjusting constant and separating the cyclical components and the random components.

Time series modelling used to estimate the trend with effects of seasonal, cyclic and random factors. Multiplicative model technique has been applied to analyze research using facts and information available and is critically evaluated using proper research methodology. Its quantitative research based on last 5 years sales and estimating trend.

The research incorporated the sales of the last 5 years. The project tries to highlight and estimate the actual trend pattern. Business Forecasting technique has been applied to forecast sales for the year 2011 to 2015 by eliminating the seasonal component to sales and adjusting the random and cyclical components.

Using the least square method, multiplicative model and deseasonalized sales trend help to forecast sales for the year 2011 to 2015 has been estimated.