1Krishna Kanta Handiqui State Open University, Khanapara-781 022, Guwahati, Assam, India
*Corresponding Author: Sarmistha Rani Baruah, Krishna Kanta Handiqui State Open University, Khanapara-781 022, Guwahati, Assam, India, Email: baruahsarmistha1@gmail.com
The present study examines the growth, instability, and sustainability of tea production in Assam during the period 2010–2024. Tea remains one of the most important plantation crops in Assam and plays a significant role in the regional economy and rural livelihoods. However, concerns regarding productivity stagnation, resource dependence, and long-term sustainability have increasingly emerged in recent years.
The study employs a time-series analytical framework to assess trends in area, production and yield of tea in Assam. Growth rates, instability indices, and coefficient of variation measures were used to analyse production dynamics. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was applied to examine stationarity, while Durbin-Watson statistics were used to detect autocorrelation in the data series. The findings were further interpreted using the sustainability perspectives of Herman E. Daly and Robert M. Solow.
The results reveal a modest positive growth in tea production (0.93% per annum). The results indicate that production increases are largely extensive rather than productivity-driven, with area expansion under tea cultivation (1.05%) and a negative and statistically insignificant yield (-0.13%). Instability analysis shows that yield is the most volatile component, reflected by the highest CDV of 11.60%. In contrast, the area under tea remains relatively stable, highlighting the dominance of area expansion in driving output growth. Time-series diagnostics further reveal non-stationarity in area and yield, as confirmed by the augmented dickey-fuller test. Additionally, durbin-watson statistics point to positive autocorrelation, implying persistence of shocks within the system. Interpreted through the sustainability frameworks of Herman E. Daly and Robert M. Solow, the findings suggest that the tea sector of Assam currently follows an unsustainable growth trajectory, as it relies on resource expansion rather than efficiency gains, which is necessary for long-term sustainability.
Sustainability, Tea
