Statistical study on growth and instability of area, production and productivity of selected cereal, millet and oilseed crop of Odisha

The growth rate in agriculture refers to the increase in agricultural productivity over a specific period of time where as Instability is the fluctuations and uncertainties in various factors that affect the agricultural sector which creates major challenges for farmers and the farming industry. The present study is conducted to examine the growth and instability in area, production and productivity of selected cereal, millet and oilseed crop of Odisha.

The whole study period is divided into two subperiod, period I (1970-71 to 1994-95) and Period II (1995-96 to 2019-20). The Cuddy Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI), Coppock's Instability Index (CII) and coefficient of variation (CV) are used to measure the instability in the area, production and productivity of maize, jowar and sesamum. Whereas the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is used to measure the growth rates.

For whole study period, the CAGR showed a rise in the area and production of both sesame and maize over time. Highest value of CAGR is found in maize production for both the period- I and period-II. The CAGR for the productivity of jowar is found to be significantly negative for the whole period. The largest value of the Cuddy Della Valle volatility Index was observed in maize productivity, indicating the higher degree of instability.maximum instability observed in production of maize due to the lowest value of CII and CV. Productivity of jowar is found to be more stable and consistent followed by the productivity of sesame due to the lowest value of the coefficient of variation.