A stochastic approach to determine seroconversion time of HIV infected under alertness

This paper focuses on the study of a stochastic model for predicting the seroconversion time of HIV infected using preventive strategy. The concept of preventive strategy is gaining the greater importance nowadays in view of both prevention and delaying the process of seroconversion. The effectiveness of such preventive strategies is investigated using a stochastic model approach by appropriate conceptualization of the problem. In this paper a stochastic model to derive the expected time to seroconversion from the time point at which HIV transmission takes place by introducing the concept of alertness. In developing such a stochastic model the concept of shock model and cumulative damage process are used. The expected time to seroconversion and its variance are derived and numerical illustration is provided using simulated data.