Estimation of expected time to cross the antigenic diversity threshold of hiv infected using mixed exponential distribution

This paper focuses on the study of stochastic model for predicting the expected time to cross the antigenic diversity threshold of HIV infected using the intercontact times between the successive contacts are Poisson random variables. In the estimation of expected time to seroconversion, there is an important role for the inter-arrival times between successive contacts and it has a significant influence. The purpose of this study is to bringout the impact of the intercontact times and also the magnitude of contribution to antigenic diversity in successive contacts upon the time to seroconversion. The expected time to seroconversion and its variance are derived and numerical illustrations are provided using simulated data.