Horticulture Crops Scenario in Northern Karnataka under Changing Climate

Karnataka is in the forefront in the horticulture sector growth in India. There is more diversification of agriculture towards horticulture particularly in northern Karnataka which is dry zone and experiences a high temperature and receives low rainfall. Climate change and variability are reality and understanding its impact is a challenge for cultivation of horticulture crops. To understand impact of future climate, grape was chosen as test crop and assessed area suitability and irrigation requirement under future climate in Bagalkot district using mechanistic Ecocrop model and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) CropWat decision-support tool. Analysis of past 100 years (1901–2002) climate data indicated increase in maximum temperature by 0.75°C from 30.5°C to 31.25°C 2002. Similarly, minimum temperature increased by 0.5°C from 19.5°C to 20.0°C. Mean maximum temperature showed spatial variation. Future projected climate showed increase in maximum temperature to >32.5C in Hungund taluk and 31.5°C-32.5°C in rest of the taluks by 2090. So there was an increase of maximum temperature by 1°C by the twenty-first century. Rainfall trend during past 100 years did not show any trend, however, showed spatial variation. Future projected rainfall indicated increased rainfall (981.8 mm) compared with average past rainfall (672 mm). Spatially, this increase was seen in all the parts of the district except the western part of Mudhol and Jamakhandi taluk. Under future climate scenario, excellent grape area was going to decline from 485, 945.14 ha to 97, 575.4 ha. By the twenty-first century, 97, 805.4 ha area is going to become marginal for grape cultivation in Bagalkot district. Under future climatic scenario, grape requires less irrigation (494.8 mm) compared with present (634.3 mm), but the quantity of rainwater going to be lost will increase to 618.4 mm compared with present 371 mm. So the surface water harvesting becomes more and more relevant and important in future for better cropping.