A Study on dynamicity of data on the import of fish to tripura

In the present study, an attempt has been made to study the dynamicity of the data (1998–99 to 2015–16) on imports of fishes from other states to Tripura. Some time series models such as moving average, exponential smoothing have been tried to capture the trend of imports over the years in order to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles. The appropriate time series model has been identified and it has been evaluated by the model accuracy parameters like bias, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). It is revealed that the precision levels are much higher when the 2-interval simple moving average is used or the progressively lower values of smoothing constant is employed as it closely fits that actual data. The importance of such studies stems from the fact that the policy makers need the trend/pattern of imports of fishes/various items over the years in advance which helps to determine/regulate the trade policy of such items.