Economic Affairs

Apple is commercially one of the most important temperate fruits and is fourth among the most widely produced fruits in the world with India contributing 2.05 per cent of the total apple production in the world. This study focuses on the behaviour analysis of apple prices, their arrivals and trends from 2003 to 2022. AGMARK (Agriculture marketing) and National Horticulture Board were the secondary data sources for the study. For the empirical study, the seasonal index was calculated to evaluate seasonal trends in the demand for apples annually and a polynomial regression model was used for accessing the trends and predictive analysis. Besides, two-period and three-period moving averages were taken as technical indicators to determine the future course of the market. The findings of this study unraveled that June has the highest seasonal index for price with 2.25 followed by May and April with 1.78 and 1.39, respectively, whereas quarterly, the second quarter shows the highest seasonality of 1.63. For arrivals, the month of October records the highest seasonality of 5.39 followed by November and September with 2.43 and 2.38 respectively and if taken quarterly, the fourth quarter shows the highest seasonality of 2.91. CAGR was used as an instrument of analysis to figure out the growth in minimum, maximum and modal prices which were found to be 7.71%, 9.52% and 8.75% respectively. The forecasting model predicted the prices for the next eight years i.e., from 2023 to 2030 where the prices for the year 2023, 2025 and 2030 will be ₹ 6379.21/qtl, ₹ 7154.02/qtl and ₹ 9293.78 /qtl, respectively. Therefore, the novelty of the research is that the growth rate in the maximum prices of apples is higher than the minimum prices. Besides, the other indicators like the polynomial regression model and moving average also indicate uptrend signals. Hence, all analytical tools show a noteworthy hike and viable market potential.