1Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, Agricultural College, Bapatla, ANGRAU, Andhra Pradesh, India
2Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College, Udayagiri, ANGRAU, Andhra Pradesh, India
*Corresponding author: d.ramesh@angrau.ac.in
Present study made an attempt to understand the market Cointegration and causality of price signals among the selected markets (Adoni, Kurnool and Yemmiganur) of Major oilseeds (Groundnut, Castor and Sunflower) in Andhra Pradesh. For this, secondary time series data on market prices had been collected during the period from January 2011 to April 2023 from Agriculture Market Intelligence Centre, Lam Guntur and various selected tools namely Johansen Method of Cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Engle Granger causality test were also been employed. It was resulted with conclusion of stable price cointegration across the selected markets of Groundnut, Castor and Sunflower in the long run relation through Johansen's Cointegration test. Where from VECM estimates on Groundnut prices, Error Correction Term (ECT) was identified as negative and significant for Adoni and Kurnool market only, which confirmed that these series would be return to its previous long run equilibrium with the price adjustment (speed of recovery) from short run disequilibrium to long run equilibrium by 29.1% and 23.3% per month respectively. Granger Causality test revealed that there existed long run bi-directional causality for markets of Kurnool and Yemmiganur i.e., price transmission would occur in both directions for Groundnut and castor.
⓿ Analysis of monthly price data (2011-2023) for groundnut, castor and sunflower across the selected markets of Andhra Pradesh (Adoni, Kurnool and Yemmiganur) were studied.
⓿ Johansen cointegration test confirmed long-run price integration among the selected markets for all three oilseed crops, indicating strong market linkage and price transmission.
⓿ Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) revealed price adjustment speeds of 29.1% (Adoni) and 23.3% (Kurnool) for groundnut, 42% (Adoni) for castor and 20.6% (Adoni) for sunflower, showing varying convergence to long-run equilibrium.
⓿ Granger causality analysis showed bi-directional price transmission between several market pairs, particularly Kurnool-Yemmiganur for groundnut and all market pairs for castor.
⓿ The study demonstrates strong spatial market integration in Andhra Pradesh oilseed markets, providing insights for price policy, market monitoring and improving market efficiency.
Cointegration, Causality, Market, Price and Oilseeds
