Present Indian scenario

In spite of being among the top five electricity-producing countries in the world, India has a very low per capita electricity consumption (about one-sixth of the world average). Only 55% of the households have access to electricity, and about one fifth of the villages are yet to be electrified. To meet the energy requirements of the economy, the power policy aims at ensuring power availability for all by 2012, electrification of all villages by 2009, and access to electricity for all households by 2012. These objectives would require capacity addition of 100 GW (gigawatts) and total investments of about 180 billion dollars till 2012. Long-term planning will involve ensuring availability of fuels, systems (for generation and distribution), and markets.

According to a study by Goldman Sachs, India has the potential to show fastest growth over the next 30–50 years and could achieve a growth rate higher than five per cent over the next 30 years if infrastructure development proceeds successfully. Given this, requirements in the electricity sector have been projected by the DAE (Department of Atomic Energy) as follows:

Per capita electricity generation is expected to rise from 613 kWh (kilowatt-hours) in 2002 to about 5305 kWh in 2052 (Figure 1 [a]). Figure 1 [a]Projected per capita electricity generation

Growth of electricity has been projected to be about 6.3% between 2002 and 2022, dropping to 4.9% between 2022 and 2032, 4.6% in the next decade, and 3.9% between 2042 and 2052.

Installed power capacity is projected to grow from 138.73 GWe (gigawatt electric) in 2002 to 1344 GWe in 2052 (Figure 1 [b]). Figure 1 [b]Projected installed power capacity Source Department of Atomic Energy

India's energy resource base and role of nuclear energy

India will continue to be heavily dependent on coal and it will remain as the most important energy source as far as electricity-generating potential is concerned. With technological progress and improvements on the commercial deployment front, nuclear energy can play an important role in the electricity sector. The potential for electricity generation from all available resources other than nuclear energy and coal is very meagre (Table 1). Nuclear energy, particularly from the FBR (fast-breeder reactors) and thorium reactors, has a huge potential to augment this base. Nuclear power, by the DAE estimates, can contribute to about 20% share in the total electricity generation system by 2052 (Figure 2). Table 1

India's energy resource base

Energy resource	Amount	Electricity potential^a (GWe-year)

Coal	53.3 BT	10 660
Hydrocarbon	12 BT^b	5 833
Uranium metal	61 000 T
• In PHWR		328
• In fast breeders		42 231
Thorium-metal (in breeders)	225 000 T	155 502
Hydro	150 GWe	69 per year
Non-conventional renewable energy	100 GWe	33 per year

BT – billion tonnes; T – tonnes; GWe – gigawatt electric
PHWR – pressurized heavy water reactors
Note^aAssuming all resources are used for generating electricity.
^bCurrently known resources (including coal-bed methane) are 3 BT. However, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural gas has set a target of locating at least 12 BT as per Hydrocarbon Vision 2025.

Figure 2Projected installed power capacity by fuel Source Department of Atomic Energy

India's nuclear power programme

India has followed a three-stage nuclear power programme, consisting of development of the following stages:

Stage 1 PHWRs (pressurized heavy water reactors),

Stage 2 FBRs, and

Stage 3 thorium-based reactors.

India is endowed with modest uranium reserves, which can support 10 000 MWe (megawatt electric) of PHWR capacities. PHWR is the most efficient way of using natural uranium. India's first 540 MWe PHWR unit operating at Tarapur is doing remarkably well.

India is following the path of first concentrating on the FBRs along with the PHWRs and then going on to develop thorium based reactors. Following this path will allow India to have fairly large electricity generation from domestic nuclear fuels. In order to proceed on to the next stage of the nuclear power programme, certain basic objectives need to be achieved. These include completing the 500 MWe PFBR (prototype fast-breeder reactor) now under construction at Kalpakkam, closing the fuel cycle with fast reactors and mastering all aspects of the fuel cycle technology, and incorporating feedback from the operating experience of PFBR in the future fast-breeder reactors.

There are various technologies that are being researched upon and would help India in meeting its nuclear energy needs.These include the following.

AHWR (advanced heavy water reactor), which would derive two-thirds of its energy from thorium. Development of the AHWR has given India an opportunity to incorporate several passive safety features in the design of this reactor; for example, heat removal by natural circulation. These features are now being incorporated by other countries in the fourth-generation systems. It would also help India in gaining experience in large-scale handling of thorium.

The ADS (accelerator-driven systems), which would support growth with thorium systems and require long-term R&D (research and development) efforts, is one area that has attracted several international groups to collaborate with India to use vast expert manpower resources.

Steady-state super-conducting Tokamak has given India the technological capability to participate in ITER.¹

¹ To start with, ITER was an abbreviation for International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. However, it has now been decided to drop the full form and just retain the name ITER, which in Latin means ‘the way’.

Changing approach to nuclear energy technology in international arena

There has been a shift in the approach to nuclear energy in the industrialized world today. Until recently, open fuel cycle was a preferred option among most countries. However, closed fuel cycles are now being preferred, as they are more efficient from the point of view of energy sustainability and credible waste management. These are also more environmentally friendly as waste can be recycled back for use. There is now a convergence on the need to move towards closed fuel cycle as is obvious from various programmes initiated, such as INPRO (International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles), GEN IV (Generation IV), and MNA (Multilateral Nuclear Approaches), etc. All along, India has based its strategies on closed fuel cycle and this should continue to be a formal part of India's national policy.

Investment in nuclear energy sector

With regard to investment in the nuclear energy sector, the initial R&D investment should be led by the government. The approach should be to follow the RD3 philosophy, that is, research, development, demonstration, and deployment. After the prototype demonstration, the first commercial unit can be financed on a 1:1 debt– equity basis and subsequently, one could move to 2:1 debt–equity ratio.

Costs of nuclear energy

Nuclear power stations have been set up at a capital cost of approximately 50 million rupees/MWe. The unit cost, inclusive of the cost of decommissioning, is about 2.50 rupees/unit for a freshly constructed nuclear power station and 2.65 rupees/unit for the Tarapur Power Station. Nuclear energy is far more competitive for power generation than the other energy sources. Capital cost of nuclear power plants is high but fuelling cost is low and so it is less subject to inflationary pressures. Moreover, nuclear fuel, being of high calorific value, can be easily transported and stored.

Fuel supply situation

On the fuel supply situation, reactors now operating and under construction will take the nuclear installed capacity to 7280 MWe. Installed capacity of about 20 000 MWe is expected to be achieved by 2020 through PHWRs, FBRs, and eight LWRs (light water reactors). Fuel supply for the PHWRs and FBRs will be based on the domestic sources but for LWRs, fuel has to be imported. So far, fuel supply has been tied up for the two LWRs under construction at Kalpakkam. For the remaining reactors, so far, no tie-ups have been made.

Policy directions for future

Policy directions and strategies, which India should follow to meet its emerging nuclear energy needs, should include the following.

The 540 MWe PHWR design should be scaled up to 700 MWe.

Uranium exploration efforts should be stepped up.

Metal-alloy-based fuels should be developed for FBR by 2020.

The 500 MWe FBR should be completed on schedule and four similar units should be constructed before 2020.

Research in the area of ADS and fusion systems should be stepped up to speedily exploit vast thorium resources.

High temperature reactors and technologies should be developed to produce, store, transport, and use hydrogen.

Securing our emerging energy needs: What nuclear energy can do*