Impact of Climate Change and Agricultural Inputs on Wheat Productivity in India: Long-run and Short-run Dynamics

Agriculture is one of the important sectors for the sustainable development of any country. Enhancing productivity and performance is essential for agricultural development in order to meet SDGs 1 and 2. Increased agricultural productivity and performance in any nation implies a favorable trade-off connection with the secondary and tertiary sectors, which speeds up that nation’s growth. Wheat is one of the principal cereal crops crucial to food security, livelihoods supporting, GDP, exports, agro-industries and food stability in India. Change in climate is impacting wheat production through rising temperatures, altered rainfall, and water scarcity, extreme weather, shifting growing regions, pests, and decreased grain quality. This study investigates the impact of climate change and key agricultural inputs on wheat productivity in India, with a specific focus on long-term and short-term dynamics. Employing a dataset spanning 39 years (1983-84 to 2021-22), the research uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to evaluate the relationship between wheat yield and factors such as certified seed distribution, irrigation, rainfall, and temperature. The study reveals that that certified quality of seed distribution and irrigation significantly boost wheat productivity in the long run, while rising temperatures negatively impact yields. However, in the short run, challenges such as diminishing returns and management issues linked to seed distribution may lead to reduced productivity. Additionally, short-term increases in irrigation show minimal immediate effects, whereas temperature variations demonstrate a significant impact on yields. The study underscores the critical role of environmental factors, particularly temperature volatility, in influencing wheat productivity over time and provides insights for policymakers to enhance food security amidst climate change.