Determinants and Export Potential of India's Turmeric Exports: Evidence from an Augmented Panel Gravity Model

The comparative advantage of Indian turmeric exports gradually declined in the post-WTO period. In light of this, the study focuses on identifying the determinants of Indian turmeric exports during the period 1995 to 2021. It also examines the export potential of turmeric in world markets. The study employs an augmented log-linearised gravity model with Generalised Least Squares (GLS), and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation techniques. The estimated results reveal a negative impact of partner countries’ agricultural GDP, tariff rates, non-tariff measures, distance, and regional trade agreements on India's turmeric exports. Conversely, India's agricultural GDP, the population of India and its trading partners, shared borders, common language, colonial ties, and WTO membership are found to have a statistically significant positive impact on turmeric exports. India demonstrates significant export potential with most of the 42 countries that were assessed. This finding highlights the strong global demand for Indian turmeric in international markets. India may pursue more effective bilateral and regional trade negotiations to mitigate the impact of tariffs and nontariff barriers on turmeric exports. Additionally, enhancing the quality of turmeric produce to align with global standards and moving up in the value chain are essential for strengthening India's competitive edge in international markets.