Coincidental Indicators of Indian Business Cycles: A Time-Series Analysis

In India, the level of economic activity cannot be truly represented by few selected macroeconomic variables as most of the indicators are published to lags and are frequently revised. Therefore, to fill in this research gap of true and timely monthly representation of the level of economic activity in India, the primary objective of this study is to identify the coincidental business cycle indicators with the help of advanced econometric tools for a period ranging between the years 1994 to 2014. The results of the study based on the robust methodological framework suggest that non-oil exports and oil imports represent the state and level of the Indian economy.