Growth and Instability Analysis of Area, Production and Productivity of Paddy in Kerala, with Special Reference to “The Kerala Conservation of Paddy Land and Wetland Act, 2008.”

Rice is the staple food of Keralites. Kerala climate is well suited for wetland paddy cultivation. However, the paddy land in Kerala is decreasing over years. The Kerala conservation of paddy land and wetland Act, 2008 made a slight change in this decadal decreasing trend. In this study, Bai-Perron test identified a structural break in area, production and productivity during 2007–08 and 2009–10, which could be associated to the conservation act. The compound annual growth rate for area and production was found to be negative. The growth in area diminished before and after the break, but the diminishing rate was less after the break (−2.52%) than the period before the break date (−4.40%). So, as in the case of production. Productivity showed a positive growth rate for the overall period. Instability in production was high after the break date, whereas, instability in area remained almost same for both before and after the break dates. Exponential growth model was used for forecasting. The forecasted area and production up to 2030 showed a declining trend. The forecasted results on area showed that there will be a decline of around 36, 444 ha in another 12 years. Similarly, the production will also come down to 3, 70, 795 t.

Structural break in paddy area, production and productivity was found to be coinciding with the commencement of the conservation act of 2008.

The trend in paddy area in Kerala was found to be constantly declining, however, the rate of decline was less (−2.52%) after the implantation of the act.