Growth and Instability Analysis of Cereal Crops in India

The present study is an attempt to examine the growth and instability in the area, production and productivity of cereals in India. The time series data from 1951-52 to 2020-21 regarding the area, production and production of rice, wheat, maize, barley as well as total cereal and millets have been used to estimate the compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDI) and Coppock’s Instability Index (CII) to obtain the objectives of the study The period of 70 years is partition into seven periods. After India forcibly launched the green revolution, cereal crops helped the country transition from a food insufficient one to a food-secure country. The study revealed that throughout the whole period, there is a positive growth rate in area, production and productivity under rice, maize, total cereal and millets except wheat has a negative growth during the fourth period in productivity. The analysis of instability in CV and CII showed that the highest and lowest variation was found under barley in area and production and almost the same instability in productivity in all the study periods except in analysis of CDI under wheat has the highest instability. To better identify which sub-period there was growth and which time there was lag, the entire study period was divided into sub-periods.

• Cereal crops are mostly grasses cultivated for their edible seeds (actually a fruit called a caryopsis). Cereal grains like wheat, maize, and paddy are considered primary crops as they are staple foods to most of the population and provide more food energy to the human race than any other type of crop.

• India faced a difficult challenge in the early 1960s to feed its rapidly expanding population of 459 million people as the country was experiencing a production deficit of food grains. It is estimated that 4 million people died of hunger that year in eastern India, leaving painful memories of the Bengal famine of 1943. Therefore, India was forced to import increasing amounts of food and it was described as “Ships to Lips”.

• Fortunately, the Green Revolution was started in India in the 1960s employing modernised agricultural techniques such as high-yielding cultivars, enhanced agronomic techniques, plant protection techniques, pesticides, fertilisers and mechanization from the mid-1960s through the early 2000s.

• These enhanced techniques also referred to as “Green Revolution technology,” significantly increased agricultural output, especially for maize, rice and wheat. India’s total cereal production increased from an annual average of 74 million metric tons in the 1960s, to an annual average of 100 million metric tons in the 1980s, and to an annual average of 134 million metric tons in the 1990s.

• Post-Green Revolution, the production of wheat and rice doubled due to initiatives of the government, but the production of other food crops such as indigenous rice varieties and millets declined.

• The country’s agricultural production and associated economic gains were advanced by the Green Revolution, but this came at the expense of cultural values being lost, soil and water resources being polluted and depleted, wild and crop plant diversity declining, and general well-being and public health deteriorating.