Vehicular Emissions: Estimation, Future Prediction and Control Strategies for The Capital City of India

In this work an estimate of the present vehicular exhaust emissions of the metro city of Delhi has been constituted and the future vehicle emission levels are projected, which cater to various possibilities of the proposed control Strategies. A Delphi survey was commissioned to obtain feedback and the suggestions of the experts, who have a technical background such as industrial, scientific, transport administration, engineering academics and engineering students. The data collected was analyzed using the MATLAB programme. The results have been used to propose future emission modification factors, which are used to find the future level of the vehicular emissions. Other than Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, eight different control strategies are constructed for the years 2010, 2020 and 2030.The vehicular emissions are observed to rise very rapidly, e.g. for BAU scenario the vehicular emissions in Delhi may rise by approximately 15%, 150%, and 400% respectively for the years 2010, 2020 and 2030. However by incorporating the proposed strategies it is anticipated that 20% to 70% emissions of the BAU scenario projections can be reduced.