Yield response modeling and decomposing production in rice in India

India is the second largest producer of rice however rice productivity is the lowest among the top five rice growing countries in the world. Recent price rise of rice commodity and retirement of rice lands for non agriculture purposes necessitate analyzing the yield response and net returns in rice and suggesting measures to improve upon the existing situation in the country. This paper is an attempt to unravel the facts on yield response, returns and production growth in rice using time series data. The study reveals that there has been deceleration in growth rate of rice production and productivity in India. It is important to focus on yield breakthrough technologies to enhance the yield growth in rice. The study used decomposition model to disaggregate the effects of yield and area on production growth and found that yield effect is more in eastern states like West Bengal, Orissa, and Assam and therefore requires special emphasis for promotion of high yielding variety technology in the region. Rice yield response analysis evidently exhibited that irrigation has significant influence on rice yield and hence needs to be accorded top priority in improving the irrigation infrastructure. Net return over C₂ cost is found to be too low and even negative in some of the major rice growing states in the country and hence efforts are required to enhance the profit level otherwise may have an impact on food security.