Evaluating Structural Interdependence of Cereal Productivity under Climate Variability: A Study on Main and Coarse Cereals in India

India’s cereal economy is largely centred on rice and wheat, leading to uneven growth across other vital crops such as coarse cereals-millets, maize and barley. These coarse cereals, often termed as climate-resilient and nutrient-rich, are critical for sustainable agriculture, especially in semi-arid and marginal farming regions. However, the productivity of coarse cereals has remained relatively stagnant, raising concerns about disproportionate capital allocation and growing climatic stress.

This study explores the structural relationship between the marginal productivity of capital and land in main cereals (rice and wheat) and that in coarse cereals, with a specific focus on how climate variability moderates these dynamics. Based on annual data from 1996–97 to 2020–21, the research constructs standardized marginal productivity indicators for both capital and land, along with a composite Climate Index derived from rainfall and temperature variations. Two regression models are employed to estimate the interdependencies under normal and climate-stress conditions.

The findings reveal a strong positive spill over from capital productivity in main cereals to coarse cereals under normal climatic conditions, but a significantly weaker effect during climate-stress years. Conversely, land productivity in main cereals shows a negative relationship with that in coarse cereals, hinting at possible competition or displacement. To conclude the capital productivity of main cereals and coarse cereals complements each other under normal climatic conditions whereas the land productivity reveals the displacement of coarse cereals by the main cereals.