1Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Tirana, Blvd Zog 1, 1016Tirana, Albania
2Veterinary Faculty, Institute of Food Safety, Feed and Environment, University of Ljubljana, Gerbièeva 60, Ljubljana-1000, Slovenia
*Corresponding Author: Dritan Topi, Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Tirana, Blvd Zog 1, 1016Tirana, Albania. Email: dritan.topi@unitir.edu.al
This study evaluates the impact of climate variability on the risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize across Albania’s major agricultural regions over the period 2004-2024. Rising temperatures and more frequent droughts, driven by climate change, are identified as major factors promoting the growth of Aspergillus flavus and the production of aflatoxins, posing a threat to food and feed safety.
A temperature-based aflatoxin risk index (ARI) was developed, defined as the proportion of days during the maize growing season (May-September) with maximum temperatures exceeding 33°C. Spatial and temporal patterns were assessed across six main producing regions: Fier-Lushnjë, Durrës, Elbasan, Shkodër, Gjirokastër and Korçë.
The findings indicate a clear upward trend in high-risk conditions, particularly in western lowland regions, where ARI values frequently exceeded 60%, indicating high to very high risk. In contrast, the inland region of Korçë exhibited consistently lower ARI values due to cooler climatic conditions. Seasonal analysis revealed that July-August represents the critical risk window. These findings align with broader climate-driven trends observed in Southern Europe and highlight the increasing vulnerability of Albania’s maize production systems to mycotoxin contamination. While the ARI serves as a simple and scalable screening tool, integrating additional environmental variables is recommended to improve predictive accuracy.
Aflatoxins, Aspergillus flavus, Climate variability, Maize, Risk assessment/aflatoxin risk index
