A framework for detecting impending critical scenarios using the enhancement of intelligence

This paper describes a framework for a system utilizing a knowledge base with the components: multiple concept hierarchies, inference rules and scenarios. Such a system can assist in the reformulation of data to aid analysts in assessments of scenarios representing intelligence threats such as domestic or foreign terrorism. Multiple hierarchies are used to generalize input data and develop common concepts that may be found in the data. These concepts can then be used, along with inferences from the data and concepts, to instantiate the scenarios. We then describe a fuzzy set approach to select the strongest scenario for the analyst's consideration.