1College of Agriculture, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya, Rewa-486 001, India
2ICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (IASRI), New Delhi-110 012, India
Department of Mathematics & Statistics, CCS HAU, Hisar-125 004, India
*E-mail: pradeepjnkvv@gmail.com
Online published on 27 January, 2023.
Due to the importance of wheat crop and Punjab being the leading wheat producer, this paper considers hierarchical time series data on wheat production in Punjab. The Punjab state wheat production data is organized in a hierarchy based on geographical regions. Topdown, bottom-up, middle-out, and optimal-combination approaches were used along with single series forecasting. An analysis of forecast performance shows that bottom-up approach outperforms other methods in terms of RMSE and MAE in out of sample forecast horizon. Finally, the state of Punjab has forecasted wheat production from 2019 to 2023 using a bottom-up approach.
Bottom-up, Forecasting, Middle-out, Production, Wheat
