Indian Journal of Ecology

The simulation analysis was made for three winter seasons 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 and for five levels of maximum and minimum temperature increase and compared with the performance of winter maize crop with actual temperature level using the FAO Aquacrop model. The five levels of maximum and minimum temperature increases were T_max +1°C, T_max +2°C, T_max +3 °C, T_max +4°C, T_max +5°C and T_min +1°C, T_min +2°C, T_min +3°C, T_min +4°C, T_min +5°C respectively. For winter maize, model prediction for the future temperature increases in maximum temperature for five levels T_max +1°C, T_max +2°C, T_max +3°C, T_max +4°C, T_max +5°C showed a positive response on simulated crop yield and biomass. The increase in yield and biomass of winter maize varied from 5.6 to 23.7 % for 2016-17, 4.3 to 19.6 % for 2017-18 and 6.4 to 27.3 % for 2018-19 for five levels of temperature increase T_max +1°C, T_max +2°C, T_max +3°C, T_max +4°C, T_max +5°C respectively. The average increase in simulated yield and biomass of winter maize was found to be 3.73 % for 2016-17, 3.06 % for 2017-18 and 4.19 % for 2018-19 for one degree (1°C) rise in maximum temperature. Model prediction for the future temperature increase in minimum temperature for five levels also showed a positive response on simulated crop yield and biomass. But the predicted yield and biomass increase are more pronounced in case of increase due to maximum temperature elevation. The average increase in simulated yield and biomass of winter maize was found 4.07 % for 2016-17, 3.37 % for 2017-18 and 4.47 % for 2018-19 for one degree (1°C) increase in minimum temperature. Crop water requirement increased with increasing level of maximum temperature for all three years. With the increase in temperature simulated yield also increased for winter maize alongside crop water requirement.