Agricultural Vulnerability to Climate Change in Punjab: A Spatio-temporal Analysis

Changing climate and its variability at the regional scale has become a constraint to development in general and poverty reduction specific for low-income countries. The mapping of climatic vulnerability provides a wider approach to understanding its dynamics across space and over time. The study analysed the vulnerability index of 22 districts of Punjab state at four different points of time i.e., 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The uneven weight approach of Iyengar and Sudershan is used to calculate the vulnerability index, which is the sum of exposure and sensitivity minus adaptive capacity. The indicator-wise analysis of vulnerability in Punjab from 1990 to 2020 reveals significant regional disparities. Majha improved its resilience, reducing exposure from 0.47 to 0.19, while Doaba’s vulnerability sharply increased from 0.19 to 0.86. Malwa’s exposure moderately rose from 0.29 to 0.40, and overall sensitivity slightly declined, yet both Doaba and Malwa became more susceptible to climate risks. The findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions to address rising vulnerabilities, especially in districts like Barnala and Bathinda, which have seen sharp increases in their vulnerability indices.