Assessing Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in Forest-Fringe Communities: Evidence from Sindh Forest Division, India

The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is highly vulnerable to the impacts and variability of climate change. The present study examines fifteen forest blocks across three ranges Sindh, Manasbal, and Harran-Shallabugh within the Sindh Forest Division, with particular consideration of the associated socioeconomic profiles. Six socioeconomic indicators were used to determine socioeconomic vulnerability: population density (km²), literacy rate (%), percentage of BPL households, percentage of fuel wood consumption, percentage of main workers, and percentage of Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) beneficiaries. The multistage sampling approach was em ployed to select blocks and ranges, and primary data was collected through field surveys and interactions, using a structured interview schedule. The weight was assigned using a pairwise comparison method (PCM) for the construction of the vulnerability index (VI). Dagapora forest block was the most vulnerable, with VI of 0.774 (1st rank) having socio-economic vulnerability under the present scenario and the Lar forest block had the lowest VI (0.143) indicating that was the least susceptible. Range-wise, the Harran Shallabugh was the most vulnerable with a VI of 0.667 (Ist rank) followed by the Sindh range with a VI of 0.401 (2^nd rank), whereas the Manasbal range was the least vulnerable with a VI of 0.344 (3^rd). The major drivers of vulnerability across blocks and ranges were high BPL households, fuelwood dependency, rapid population growth, low literacy rates, and a lack of alternative livelihood opportunities, contributing to increased vulnerability. The study highlights the need for targeted adaptation measures, sustainable land management practices, livelihood diversification, and strengthening adaptive capacities to reduce vulnerability and protect forest resources in the region