Building the price forecasting model for cotton price in Kesinga Market Odisha, India

Agriculture development through cash crops is a sine qua non for economic growth of a state having an agrarian economy. Orissa is one of the most important states growing cotton under rainfed conditions in Kalahandi-Bolangir-Koraput(KBK) districts particularly in Kalahandi, Bolangir, Koraput Ganjam, Rayagada, and Nuapada. Cotton is the capital intensive crop in the state. Kalahandi (western Odisha) is the Black cotton soil zone and because of this, the quality of cotton is high comparing to other districts in the state. Kesinga is the leading cotton market in Kalahandi and it influences the cotton price in the state very well. So the need for forecasting the price of cotton in Kesinga emerges to give support to farmers and traders in planning and better marketing. The SARIMA model (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1)₁₂ is selected as the best model for forecasting. The forecasted values were very much close to the actual values, and were very much helpful in improving the accuracy of forecasting. Seasonal index in the month of February shows the highest 107.82 and in the month of April it shows the lowest 89.61 in Kesinga market.