Analysis of growth, instability, modelling and forecasting of cotton production scenario in India

Cotton (Gossypiums pp.), one of the most important commercial crops, has experienced a series of development since independence. The present study is an attempt to study different phase of development, the nature of development, its instability and forecast its future behaviour with the help of the different descriptive statistics. The present study has attempted to examine the nature and growth during pre, early, late hybrid and Bt cotton periods. Coefficient of variations along with instability index by Chand and Raju and also Coppock's index are provided similar instability results over the periods of cotton development. In between the spline regression technique and structural time series modelling technique, the spline model is found to be better and hence used for forecasting purpose. Forecasting figures up to 2017 reveals that cotton production in India will remain increasing and will reach to production of 56.65 million bales from 14.7 million hectare of land with an average yield of only 630 kg/ha during 2017. Productivity will remain far below either the average world productivity or the highest productivity in the world. As such the study strongly advocates for researchers towards technological breakthrough in cotton production in India