1Professor, Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004
2Senior Economist Department of Economics and Sociology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004
*Corresponding author's email: akmahal@pau.edu
JEL Codes: O44, Q10, Q54.
The study was aimed to determine effect of weather variables namely minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours and rainfall on wheat productivity. Thus trends in monthly data of weather variables had been studied from 1971–72 to 2014–15 for wheat growing period in Punjab. The results had shown that during period of forty five years maximum temperature had significantly decreasing trend during month of January but significant increasing trend during March whereas minimum temperature had significantly increasing trend during all months from November to April. Sunshine hours had declined significantly whereas relative humidity increased significantly during wheat growing period. Wheat productivity was detrended using logistic model, which was found to be most suitable, to remove effect of technological change overtime. Effect of different weather variables were studied on detrended wheat productivity.
Logistic model, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wheat productivity
