The Demand-Supply gaps for foodgrains in India: Projections for 2019–20 to 2025–26

The foodgrain production in India increased from 50.82 million tonnes in 1950–51 to around 251 million tonnes in 2014–15. However, the per capita consumption of foodgrains declined in all income classes and in all Indian states. Regardless of the fall in the per capita demand, it is evident that the total demand for foodgrains would increase on account of population growth and the increasing indirect demand for foodgrains (feed, seed, industrial use and waste). The changed food consumption may lead to changed food demand in the future which is a concern for food security. The empirical study on the dynamics of supply and demand of foodgrains is very crucial from the point of view of food security and often serves insights to policy planners regarding the existing state of affairs and future directions of food self-sufficiency. The study estimated the demand and supply of foodgrains and carried out the projections for foodgrains under four different scenarios of economic growth rates (6, 7, 8 and 9 percent) for years 2019–20 to 2025–26. The results suggested that the demand for foodgrains would be met with a surplus in future under the scenario of 6, 7 and 8 percent of economic growth and with a marginal surplus under a scenario of 9 percent of economic growth. However, it is likely that the pulses grains would be short in supply of demand in the coming years under third and fourth scenarios (8 and 9 percent economic growth rates) of the study. Therefore, the policies that could help in maintaining the growth in the long-run were needed that would be able to keep a balance between domestic production and demand for total foodgrains especially pulses.