Price volatility and seasonal analysis of tomato, Onion and Potato

The present study was aimed at analysing volatility, and seasonal variation in prices of tomato, onion and potato (TOP) using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) analysis and monthly centred moving average method. Based on the highest market arrivals of produce, the Madanapalle (Andhra Pradesh), Lasalgaon (Maharashtra) and Agra (Uttar Pradesh) markets were selected for tomato, onion and potato respectively. A monthly time series data for a period of 15 years from January 2005 to December 2019 were considered for analysis. The results revealed that among the selected three markets, Agra market exhibited persistent price variation (α+β=1.112) followed by Madanapalle (α+β=0.976) and Lasalgaon market (α+β=0.969). The highest seasonal price indices were observed during November (169.23), October (141.65) and November (132.08) respectively at Madanapalle tomato, Lasalgaon onion and Agra potato markets respectively. A systematic market intelligence network is needed to collect and collate real-time data on crop area, production, demand, supply and prices, to get more stable and remunerative prices at farmer level. Strengthening of post-harvest infrastructural facilities to stabilize the prices and to improve the marketing system for TOP crops is essential for the benefit of both producers and consumers.