1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, JNKVV, Jabalpur-482 004 (India)
2College of Agriculture, Powarkheda, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Jabalpur-461 110 (Madhya Pradesh)
3College of Agriculture (JNKVV), Ganj Basoda-464 221, Madhya Pradesh
4Agro Economic Research Centre, JNKVV, Jabalpur-482 004 (Madhya Pradesh)
5Department of Agricultural Economics, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture and Technology, Kumarganj, Ayodhya-224 229 (Uttar Pradesh)
*Corresponding author's email: pradeepjnkvv@gmail.com
Online published on 3 February, 2023.
This study will indubitably benefit the farmers, policymakers and stakeholders by delivering accurate forecast information of Madhya Pradesh and India. Forecasting is the primary method to predict wheat production in order to identify the situation and determine the value of production for the following year while minimizing production risk. This study used the ARIMA Model to predict wheat crop area, production, and yield in India and Madhya Pradesh. Model fitting and forecasting up to 2026 were carried out annual data from 1960 to 2020. This model's forecasting performance was selected based on its lowest AIC, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and maximum R2 values. Furthermore, the instability research revealed that while India had overall low instability, MadhyaPradesh had high instability in terms of area, production, and yield compared to Period-I (1960 to 1990). Moreover, this research will aid in formulating effective policies regarding wheat production.
Area, ARIMA, Forecasting, Instability, Modelling, Production, Wheat yield
