Indian Journal of Extension Education

Pre-harvest forecast of crop yield is very useful for Government and planners in taking various policy decisions relating to procurement, storage, distribution, marketing, price, export-import, etc. The main factors affecting crop yield are weather variables which influence crop growth at its different stages. Thus, extent of weather influence on crop yield depends not only on the magnitude of weather variables but also on the distribution pattern of weather over the crop season. Crop yield forecast models for rice crop have been developed (using non-linear growth models, linear models and weather indices approach with weekly weather data) for different districts of Uttar Pradesh (UP). Regressors (based on weather variables) were developed using two step nonlinear and linear models and weather indices based statistical approaches, this approach provided reliable yield forecast.