Time series modelling for forecasting area, production and productivity of Maize in Punjab

From last three decades the state government and universities has been keenly recommending maize cultivation as part of its crop diversification strategy in Punjab. Conversely, its own agencies have been abortive to come to the rescue of maize growers, who are forced to sell their produce at 40–60 per cent lower than the minimum support price (MSP) of the crop. Farmers got up to Rs1100 per quintal against Rs1850 MSP in 2020–21. Keeping in view such scenario and stagnant cropping pattern, area under maize crop was forecasted on the basis of past observations. ARIMA stochastic modelling was used to analyze the area, production and productivity in Punjab mainly to identify the most effective model that will forecast these up till 2026–27. The paper concludes on the basis of forecast available that area under maize will follow the cutback during the next eight years. If concerted efforts are made on the part of government, there is a possibility to increase the area under maize crop.